Sunday, January 27, 2008

Can Obama Win?

I'm on record as saying the Democrats would be wise to nominate John Edwards as their presidential candidate, for two simple reasons: I believe racism and sexism are alive and well in this country.

However, after witnessing Barack Obama's inspirational speech upon winning in South Carolina last night, I no longer think it impossible for him to overcome the latent racism running through our body politic like a bad strain of an STD. The reason for my change of heart is simple: Obama's sheer magnetism generates such a wellspring of support, particularly among young people, that an immense turnout in the general election could well trump the institutional racism in our country.

Let's look at the turnout in New Hampshire and South Carolina. One (New Hampshire) is a sometimes swing state that usually trends red. The other (South Carolina) is a solid red state that hasn't voted for the Democrats since Jimmy Carter won there in 1976.

John McCain won New Hampshire with 88,466 votes out of 233,381 cast for Republicans. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic side with 112,251 votes out of 284,104 cast. McCain won again in South Carolina with 147,283 out of 443,203 votes cast, while Obama ran away in the Democratic primary with 295,214 votes out of 532,468 cast.

While the vote totals of both Clinton and Obama are impressive, the numbers that stand out to me are the respective turnouts for all Republicans and all Democrats. In New Hampshire, 50,000 more people voted Democratic than Republican. In solidly red South Carolina, the Democrat's edge was even more pronounced, with almost 90,000 more votes than their Republican counterparts.

I think several factors are affecting turnout this year, and those factors will be even more evident in November.

First, Bush fatigue has energized Democrats to participate at levels not seen since the 60's. The feeling that our long national nightmare may finally be over is propelling people to the polls to vote Democrat, regardless who the nominee will be.

Second, the Republican base is depressed. The Bush Era has not gone well, the economy is in the dumpster, the war has been a disaster. Republicans are likely to stay home in droves come November, just like they have during the primary season -- particularly if McCain is the nominee.

Finally, Obama seems to be the "X" factor fueling Democratic turnout. His speeches are inspiring, and he seems to be giving younger voters reason for optimism. His message of "change" resonates among the populous.

If Obama is the nominee, these factors could well coalesce into a "perfect storm" of Democratic turnout that will overcome the latent racism I once feared would derail an Obama candidacy. So while I continue to support John Edwards, I am now cautiously optimistic about Obama's chances. How about John Edwards for Attorney General in a Barack Obama cabinet?

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

A Brokered Convention?

With Mitt Romney pulling out a win yesterday in Michigan and Rudy poised to make off with Florida, it looks like we might still have a crowded field by Mega Tuesday, or Super Tuesday, or whatever lame name the media has come up with for the weirdness that passes for our system of nominating presidential candidates. It looks like no fewer than four Republican primary winners will still be standing on February 5th, the day umpteen states go to the polls to try and sort out this mess.

On the Democratic side, if John Edwards wins in Nevada and shows well in South Carolina we will have three viable candidates still in play on Whopper Mega Super Crazy Tuesday.

I used to feel the condensed primary season was an unholy mess. Conventional wisdom has it that it leaves the candidates little time to do the "hand-shaking" and "door to door" salesmanship the populous deserves. Moreover, the process doesn't properly "vett" the candidates the way it did in the old days, when the primary season was spread over several months.

Hogwash. A contracted primary schedule makes it more likely that lots of candidates will grab lots of delegates, but none of them enough to form a majority. That means brokered conventions, and that is manna from heaven to a political junkie like me.

I fully expect both conventions to feature illogical back-room deals, delicious backstabbing, heated floor arguments resulting in fisticuffs between Betty from St. Louis and Marge from Nashville, and interminable votes on into the night. Then, at the end of the day, the Dems will come out of left field with a Gore-Hillary ticket and the Repubs will come out of right with Jeb Bush teamed with Giuliani. Best of all, none of the media talking heads will be able to tell us exactly what happened, or why.

Then a Bloomberg-McCain ticket can jump into the fray and we'll have us a good, old-fashioned brawl of a general election. I can hardly wait. This could be the most entertaining election season of my lifetime. Remember, you read it here first.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Does the Governator Want to Shut Down

California's State Park System?

After a long hiatus due to personal reasons, I'm back to blogging. I hope my old readers will return, and I hope any new readers will stay for my (hopefully) unique perspectives on politics, the environment and outdoor recreation.

Arnie "The Governator" Schwarzenegger, in a budget cutting move, recently announced the closure of 48 California state parks. Ostensibly, he is doing this because he can't bear to raise taxes on his Republican constituency. This illustrates a classic example of the prime difference between Republicans and Democrats: Republicans think only of themselves (and their pocket books) rather than the commons, while Democrats believe we're all in this together and should act accordingly.

Let's take a brief look at a representative example of the commons, from north to south, in which The Governator would shut out the good people of California:

Del Norte Redwoods State Park: One of the older units of the state park system, this park boasts of 50% native old-growth coastal redwood trees.

Clear Lake State Park: Clear Lake is the largest natural fresh-water lake in California and sports some of the best bass fishing in the entire United States. While closing the state park would by no means close the lake to public recreation, the state park does offer an inexpensive alternative to private facilities for Californians to enjoy this outstanding resource.

Armstrong Redwoods State Park: Protected from development since the 1870's and a state park since 1936, this park features the 310 foot Parson Jones tree as well as the 1400 year-old Colonel Armstrong tree.

Sutter's Fort State Park: Site of gold discovery in California that led to the great gold rush, this park's museum features exhibits of artifacts belonging to John Sutter, James Marshall and the Donner Party. The park is used extensively for educational purposes by students all over Central California; indeed, many schools base their entire State History curriculum around field trips to Sutter's Fort.

Tomales Bay State Park: Established in 1952 to protect what little beach-front property north of the Golden Gate that had yet to be developed, this park features the finest remaining virgin grove of native Bishop Pine in California.

Candlestick Point State Park: This popular urban San Francisco park features a fitness trail, two fishing piers and a community garden.

Portola Redwoods State Park: One of the tallest coastal redwoods (300 feet tall) in the Santa Cruz Mountains can be found here.

Great Valley Grasslands State Park: This park boasts on of the few intact samples of the Great Central Valley grasslands that once covered what is now the nation's breadbasket. The park is part of the Grasslands Ecological Area (GEA) that encompasses the largest block of contiguous wetlands left in California. Grasslands is home to several endangered endemic plant species and the site of spectacular springtime wildflower blooms.

Henry Coe State Park: This one is particularly irksome to me because it features the best hike-in bass fishing in the entire country. Hundreds of miles of trails and roads criss-cross this coastal range park, leading to old stock ponds miles from trail heads. These ponds are full of northern-strain largemouth bass. In a week-long hike there last spring my buddy John and I caught and released over 100 fish each, and in the entire week we saw only five other people, and one of them was a park ranger. This park is one of the most popular in the Bay Area; closing it would be unconscionable.

Fremont Peak State Park: This park offers outstanding views of nearby Monterey Bay and features an astronomical observatory with a 30-inch telescope that is open to the public on selected evenings.

Fort Ord Dunes State Park: This one is almost as bad as losing Coe. Closing Ord Dunes would short circuit plans to rehabilitate the former Army base, encompassing four miles of shoreline along over-developed Monterey Bay. Ord Dunes shows great promise as an outstanding example of native dunes near Monterey, one of the destination capitals of California.

Los Osos Oaks State Reserve: This park features centuries-old coast live oaks and five distinct plant communities. Most of the surrounding area was cleared of oak woodlands during the days of Mexican land grants.

Topanga State Park: Widely acknowledged as the largest wildlands in the world within the boundaries of a major city, this enclave in the Santa Monica Mountains north of downtown Los Angeles receives over 450,000 visitors per year. Neighboring Will Rogers State Park, which is also slated for closure, gets almost 250,000 visitors each year.

Picacho State Recreation Area: This park protects eight miles of the Lower Colorado River near Yuma and is home to bighorn sheep, wild burros and thousands of wintering waterfowl. Long a favorite of anglers and hunters, Picacho is a recreational oasis in the middle of the harsh Colorado Desert.

I could go on. Suffice it to say the California state park system has long been the envy of every other state. Crippling it to save a few dollars for rich Republicans is not only short-sighted, it's bad public policy. Our state parks generate millions of dollars in tax revenues by visitors not only from California, but by visitors from across the country. Once again our Governator is being penny wise but pound foolish.