Can Obama Win?

I'm on record as saying the Democrats would be wise to nominate John Edwards as their presidential candidate, for two simple reasons: I believe racism and sexism are alive and well in this country.

However, after witnessing Barack Obama's inspirational speech upon winning in South Carolina last night, I no longer think it impossible for him to overcome the latent racism running through our body politic like a bad strain of an STD. The reason for my change of heart is simple: Obama's sheer magnetism generates such a wellspring of support, particularly among young people, that an immense turnout in the general election could well trump the institutional racism in our country.

Let's look at the turnout in New Hampshire and South Carolina. One (New Hampshire) is a sometimes swing state that usually trends red. The other (South Carolina) is a solid red state that hasn't voted for the Democrats since Jimmy Carter won there in 1976.

John McCain won New Hampshire with 88,466 votes out of 233,381 cast for Republicans. Hillary Clinton won the Democratic side with 112,251 votes out of 284,104 cast. McCain won again in South Carolina with 147,283 out of 443,203 votes cast, while Obama ran away in the Democratic primary with 295,214 votes out of 532,468 cast.

While the vote totals of both Clinton and Obama are impressive, the numbers that stand out to me are the respective turnouts for all Republicans and all Democrats. In New Hampshire, 50,000 more people voted Democratic than Republican. In solidly red South Carolina, the Democrat's edge was even more pronounced, with almost 90,000 more votes than their Republican counterparts.

I think several factors are affecting turnout this year, and those factors will be even more evident in November.

First, Bush fatigue has energized Democrats to participate at levels not seen since the 60's. The feeling that our long national nightmare may finally be over is propelling people to the polls to vote Democrat, regardless who the nominee will be.

Second, the Republican base is depressed. The Bush Era has not gone well, the economy is in the dumpster, the war has been a disaster. Republicans are likely to stay home in droves come November, just like they have during the primary season -- particularly if McCain is the nominee.

Finally, Obama seems to be the "X" factor fueling Democratic turnout. His speeches are inspiring, and he seems to be giving younger voters reason for optimism. His message of "change" resonates among the populous.

If Obama is the nominee, these factors could well coalesce into a "perfect storm" of Democratic turnout that will overcome the latent racism I once feared would derail an Obama candidacy. So while I continue to support John Edwards, I am now cautiously optimistic about Obama's chances. How about John Edwards for Attorney General in a Barack Obama cabinet?